Daniel Splittgerber (.com)

Hi - I'm a trainee lawyer with a passion for distressed and value investing. I have a doctorate & an EMBA and I passed the CFA Level 1 exam. I love reading.

Irrational beliefs

When you think something is the right thing to do, or the right thing to argue and stand up for, you sometimes join an organization or participate in some joint effort to further a cause. One of these causes for me is Libertarianism.

I strongly believe the world would be a much better place if people had a lot more liberties.

People who join you in an effort to further such a cause hopefully share your beliefs.

They may as well have other beliefs, which you adamently oppose but nonetheless see associated with the organization whose basic cause you would like to see furthered.

It’s been very upsetting for me to see a fellow Libertarian (?) – someone I neither know personally nor have met before – advocating various claims by 9/11 conspiracy theorists or 9/11 critics in a magazine article.

The reason this has been upsetting for me is that I strive to think as rationally and follow the scientific method and think logically as much as I can. Coincidentally, I have read up on the issue of 9/11 conspiracy theories over christmas, well before I read about the article. I have found the conspiracy theories – after much rational deliberation and considering the facts proven by the scientific method – to be totally wanting.

After careful consideration, there exist, in my view, no facts indicating any kind of conspiracy whatsoever and there are no rational arguments to be made for those conspiracies – and thereby against the facts which the public knows about 9/11 – which hold up under rational scrutiny and under adherence to the scientific method. There are no “facts” or arguments that can form a rational case for scepticism concerning 9/11.

I believe humans often think irrationally – sometimes understandably so, sometimes not. And they do seem to fall for conspiracy theories every so often.

But what I will never understand is why an author who supposedly spent “thousands of hours” on a subject still holds irrational beliefs contrary to all kinds of evidence.

I also believe that everyone has the right to hold his own views and express them. So Oliver Janich is absolutely free to state his own opinion, of course.

As am I. These are the major reasons I believe the conspiracy theories and purported “facts” about 9/11 (as stated in the Focus Money article “Terroranschläge vom 11. September 2001: Wir glauben euch nicht!“) are utterly irrational, to say the least:

1. The most basic premise the conspiracy theorists fail to understand is that the burden of proof is on them. They are the ones who try to dispute the facts and try to make one believe in a different explanation for the events, so they must prove that current wisdom is incorrect. Even if you buy into their “it’s a conspiracy, so how can you prove anything without being a conspirator” argument, they could still start with any minor detail that proves the facts and the official explanation for 9/11 to be wrong and work it from there. People cannot just make stuff up and expect other people to believe their premises and dispute their ridiculous claims. It’s the other way round – start disputing the facts.

2. Conspiracy theorists often play on people’s worries about governments playing tricks on them and other emotions. Playing on one’s emotions is a clever tactic, but doesn’t make their points any more believable, if considered rationally.

3. Conspiracy theorists assert that it is ‘impossible’ to hit the Pentagon with a Boeing in such a maneuvre. A Dutch TV show took a similarly inexperienced pilot and put him in a simulator and he accomplished it three times in a row. It may be difficult, but not as difficult as the conspiracy theorists assert.

They also assert that a missile hit the Pentagon, as aircraft debris is supposedly missing. The debris is not missing, it’s here and here and here. Passenger’s DNA was found all over those parts of the Pentagon, which were hit. Lamp poles were struck down by the plane as it approached the Pentagon.

And to the supposedly “many many security cameras” watching the Pentagon: please show on any satellite image where there should have been a camera whose footage has not been released yet! There is none. Conspiracy theorists all over the world tried and couldn’t find one. The only one showing the impact actually shows a plane – though the resolution is not good.

4. Flight 93 – Why was Flight 93 not intercepted? Because NORAD had no specific targets to go after, and was waiting on the FAA to name them, not being able to do so themselves. Shut-down order or not, no fighter planes were even close. Add to that the fact that communication between NORAD and the FAA was by no means easy or as fast as today, and the “mystery” of why Flight 93 was not intercepted unravels. And by the way, they didn’t have “about an hour” to intercept planes, as the author states in his article. It was – at the most – nine minutes, which NORAD had to possibly intercept Flight 11, which then crashed into the WTC.

Also, there is no evidence whatsoever that Flight 93 was shot down. Flight-data-recorder for Flight 93 indicates nothing whatsoever that the flight could have been shot down by a missile. Faking FDR data is not only immensely difficult but has not been proven to have happened in this case, despite many a conspiracy theorist looking into it.

Also, there is no “missing debris” – what do you think this and this is?

5. I am fairly fed up by baseless accusations by now and will stop here. Read all about WTC 1 and 2 and 7 on the links given. All accusations by conspiracy theorists have been disproven. One just has to actually go read about it instead of staying in a state of disbelief.

I didn’t think I would have to ever write about something as obvious as this – and I feel sorry that I have to -, but apparently some people hold some really irrationally beliefs about 9/11. Do not count me amongst them.

Today, I donated to a ‘cult hero’

With the year ending soon, I decided to donate today. I am not a big fan of the huge charities, as their huge bureaucracies do anything but help with their case. I support small teams with ideas at the margin of public attention, i.e. undervalued teams and ideas. I currently cannot do as much volunteer work as I’d like, so this is the least I can do.

Why do I feel the need to point all that out? Because I endorse those organizations anyway, for what they stand for and for what they try to accomplish. I couldn’t care less about what others may think about donating to those institutions. I think they deserve more attention and I hope to help them get to that – with all of the ten readers a month I have..

So whom did I give to (in ascending order)?

Wikileaks

They may not care about journalists in jail. They may not help journalists who are under observation by secret police forces. But they ‘produce’ scoops. They have freed more documents who were kept secret and are often – supposedly – relevant to national security than any other publication. And they have been a game-changer for freeing (mostly governmental) information from confidentiality in general; though their fundraising methods have been controversial.

There is a ridiculous notion inherent in classifying documents produced by the government (and paid for by the people) from view by the public, which Wikileaks helps expose. After the Obama administration decided not to declassify millions of documents previously scheduled for that and after censorship laws gaining governmental (and sometimes even public) support in ever more countries, here is to hoping that Wikileaks grows stronger by the day.

Please donate to Wikileaks!

TrueCrypt

TrueCrypt is – to my limited knowledge – the best encryption program available to a regular user which works like a charm. With an ever-growing support of censorship approaches and laws worldwide, I believe it to be of utmost importance that anyone is able to secure his own privacy from prying eyes. I am an ardent believer that the debate about security in our current times is framed wrongly. There is a false premise in the prevailing mass belief that there is either ‘security or privacy’. The issue at hand is simple: It’s (a false sense of) security vs liberty. But no state whatsoever, not even a totalitarian one, can guarantee absolute safety for its citizens from all enemies. The more you let the debate be defined by fear, the more liberties you give away. This is why I stand for liberty any day and am ready to accept the trade-off: a more ‘dangerous’ world, but one with great liberties.

Please donate to TrueCrypt!

Zero Hedge

Every time someone gets called a “full-blown cult hero” and a conspiracy theorist, they are either completely nuts or spot on. In the case of the anonymous finance group blog Zero Hedge, my bet is on the latter. Sure, their posts are often controversial and there seems to be some kind of ardent followership. But that’s just perception. Are they controversial because they are perceived as being anti-mainstream or are their arguments controversial on their merits? Who truly looks at them without preconceived notions?

I think contrarian voices deserve to be supported in most cases, especially in an industry exhibiting as much conformity as the finance industry does. Zero Hedge not only exposed malpractice in the finance industry but balances out the financial information one can get by providing a contrarian viewpoint. The finance world would be a worse place without Zero Hedge.

Please donate to Zero Hedge!

The Seasteading Institute

In the words of Peter Thiel, “in our time, the great task for libertarians is to find an escape from politics in all its forms – from the totalitarian and fundamentalist catastrophes to the unthinking demos that guides so-called ‘social democracy’.” One form of escape from obviously corrupted politics lies in the possibility of settling the oceans. The underlying concept of encouraging competition between governments in order to achieve better forms of government by providing people the means to chose between them, deserves as much support as it can get. Charter Cities are another important means to achieve this.

I wholeheartedly believe humanity will be better of if people can choose between governments at free will. It will provide much-needed encouragement to start experimenting. Democracy in its recent form is quite new in an historical context. There has to be something better than that. But the only way to find out is to start providing people the possibility to choose.

Please donate to The Seasteading Institute!

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